This is the DCF from my Costco project, rebuilt as an interactive page. I added adjustable inputs for every key assumption, so the value, reverse DCF and simulations update as the numbers change. It starts from my October 20, 2026 live run, when Costco was at $992.35. My call is SELL with a $511 target, and the full reasoning is in the write-up on GitHub.
Three stages: growth and margin move in a straight line through the fast-growth years, then growth glides down to the long-term rate, then the long-term rate holds forever. Starting numbers are Costco's FY2026 actuals: $303.2B revenue, $20.2B cash, $6.2B debt, 443.3M shares, 24% tax rate.
Each line solves for one input that makes the DCF equal the share price, keeping everything else as set above.
For reference: Costco's revenue has compounded about 8.7% a year since FY2004, and its FY2026 operating margin was 3.85%.
This flips the question around: if you pay the share price and your forecast plays out, this is the yearly return you earn. Stocks normally need several points more than Treasuries to be worth the risk.
Each run draws growth (±4 pts), margin (−0.5 to +1 pt), discount rate (±1.5 pts) and long-term growth (2–4%) around your inputs.
Rows are the discount rate, columns are long-term growth. Green cells are above the share price.